Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

Election Day 2024 is almost here and may be the most contentious election of our lifetimes. Regardless of what happens, it will further divide the country to a point that America may never recover from. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are so close in the polls, which is to be expected as it is almost election day. Here's how I predict the election will go down.

THE PROCESS

The parameters of the race have become common knowledge. The candidates are voted for by a group of five hundred thirty-eight electors selected by each state and our nation’s capital. All fifty states and D.C. traditionally use a statewide popular vote to decide how their electors will be apportioned. The first one to reach two hundred and seventy electoral votes wins.

Forty-eight states and D.C. utilize a winner-takes-all approach to slate their electors, while Maine and Nebraska distribute the votes amongst their congressional districts, one vote for each district and two for the entire state. However, we will assume that Maine and Nebraska are winner-takes-all states…unless the election as a whole comes down to one electoral vote.

STARTING TALLY

To start, we’ll tally up the “safe states” for each candidate. These states have already been written off as having declared a side based on history, demographics, and other scientific polling methods. For Kamala Harris, her safe states are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. That adds up to 199 electoral votes for Kamala Harris.

President Trump’s safe states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. That adds up to 166 electoral votes for Donald Trump.

So, Kamala Harris seems to have an advantage early, but let’s not take that for granted. Next up, we have the “likely states”. These states could flip on election day, but nobody is expecting it. For Harris, she will keep Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire. For Trump, he’ll retain Iowa, Ohio, and Florida…yes, Florida is a somewhat safe state for Donald Trump.

That makes the score 226 to 219 in favor of Kamala Harris. Her 33-elector lead is suddenly down to seven. Now, we go to the polls to decide the least seven states. These are the major swing states which will likely decide the election. They are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We'll cover these in detail using the latest data from Real Clear Politics.

NEVADA

In Nevada, Donald Trump has dominated in the last year. He was up as many as ten points on Joe Biden. Harris closed in the polls as soon as she jumped in the race, and now Nevada is a genuine tossup on election day. Currently, Donald Trump leads by a full point.

If this state is close, its tradition of going Democrat will likely hold. However, the fact that Trump is still up an entire point is a significant edge for him. The New York Times thinks Harris is the favorite, but CNN has Trump up in this state. If that's not an indicator of what will happen tomorrow night, I don't know what is.

WISCONSIN

In the state of Wisconsin, Harris has done well, but just like in 2016, Donald Trump is closing quickly. Harris' lead is under a half-point, which is way closer than Trump has ever been in Wisconsin. Quinnipiac has this race as a tie, but the Rasmussen Reports poll has Trump up three here.

Ultimately, Vice President Harris doesn't have much going for her if history has anything to say about it. Donald Trump should easily carry Wisconsin.

ARIZONA

In Arizona, the Republicans traditionally hold this state, but it flipped on them in 2020. Democrats are trying to keep it in their corner, but Republicans are storming back in this state. Trump currently leads here by over two-and-a-half points. Only CNN has her leading.

That's a big lead for Kamala Harris to overcome in Arizona in just 24 hours. I don't see it happening. Donald Trump will win back Arizona.

MICHIGAN

Kamala Harris expects to do well in Michigan with Gretchen Whitmer as governor. Donald Trump won here in 2016, but hoping to win Michigan again in 2024 is a big ask. Kamala Harris is leading by about a half-point and is ahead in all reputable polls.

It's not far-fetched to say that Trump could win Michigan, but the data points towards Vice President Harris taking this state.

NORTH CAROLINA

In North Carolina, the Democrats have not won since 2008, while Republicans enjoy a three-election winning streak. However, this state usually comes down to a point or less, regardless of its result pattern.

Former President Trump is up a point and a half, and only CNN and the New York Times polls have Harris leading in this one. This is going back to the Republicans.

GEORGIA

In Georgia, Democrats were able to flip the state in 2024 after it was considered a likely Republican state for many years. In 2022, the Republicans even lost a Senate runoff election here. It hasn't been good, but the polls say other things are in store for tomorrow night.

Right now, Trump has the largest lead in any of the swing states in Georgia. He's up over a point and a half and almost two points. While the New York Times still holds on for Harris, even CNN has Trump leading in Georgia. This isn't even close. Trump is winning this one.

PENNSYLVANIA

Finally, the polls are close in Pennsylvania, but Trump is up about a half point. This state is poised to be a dogfight and could come down to the last vote.

Right now, Trump is leading by less than a half-point. Many of the more reputable polls are also siding with him. The most prominent information to consider is that Trump is leading in Pennsylvania right before election day—that's never happened before! Trump has all the momentum in this state. He'll take it back this year.

CONCLUSION: TRUMP WINS

Former President Donald J. Trump has an excellent chance of becoming the first president since Grover Cleveland to be elected President in two non-consecutive terms. While there are certainly some obstacles that he will have to overcome, Trump has never polled this well right before election day. For the first time, he will enter Tuesday night as the leader.

We'll see what happens tomorrow night.